Opinion

Predictions of war

I am not a seer; I cannot predict the future, but I can read history.

We are headed towards a new international conflict – or, to name things by their proper names, the Third World War. I would like to say 10 years, but it is more likely to be 5. Unless we get rid of Putin and manage to unite into a force strong enough to act as a real deterrence for whoever will grab power after Putin.

History shows that in most cases, countries that are ruled by a dictator, once the ruler is gone, they crumble or slow down due to the vid of power and internal fight for control. That will give Europe – and America – the time they need to get their defence ready and strong enough to prevent an attack. The longer Putin stays in power, the closer we get to WWII.

Countries like China, Iran, Syria, and North Korea will not start an international conflict either because they cannot – the smaller ones – or have no interest in doing so. China, the one country that would have the means to start a world war, has no economic interest in it. Supporting Russia in its war is beneficial for China. The skirmishes now in Taiwan are local, and with all the international support that will be given to Taiwan – if we can afford to divide the war support effort with Ukraine – it is different from a NATO-type binding contract/alliance to defend an attacked member.

On the other hand, Putin has been moving towards an international conflict since 2014 – maybe even before but the moves were not so obvious. He’s been testing Europe’s and NATO’s reaction to see how willing they are to go to war. And he found out that we are not. Any spot of unity that could be found was combated with nationalist propaganda orchestrated by his excellent and professional agents – unlike his army, his intelligence officers are effective.

The pandemic slowed down his plans, but he took advantage of the situation by strengthening his propaganda machine and increasing the subject they could capitalise on. The economic impact of the pandemic meant that most EU states invested less money in the defence and defence industry, which was a welcoming advantage for Putin. The loss of lives due to the covid 19 for Putin was just a natural selection that cleared the country of old and sick people and saved some money on the country’s budget. 

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was another test. Initially, we did well but didn’t learn anything or remember what we were supposed to know. These days, most people still believe that Putin doesn’t want a war, even though he said that he would not invade Ukraine and attack a few days later. Putin, on the other hand, got new targets for his propaganda machine, and they worked on them. Against it, Europe and the USA are mostly defenceless. The people are disconnected from the ruling parties, we are running out of war equipment, and any suggestion that we should start to produce some is regarded as crazy talk. Putin has Iran, Korea, China, and some others to give him weapons. Inefficient but present. A lousy gun is better than a non-existent one.

And, unlike us, Putin doesn’t see war as a loss. People are replaceable. His lifestyle probably hasn’t changed much – he cannot travel as he used to, but that is an acceptable sacrifice if he can get the Russian Empire back and become the Tzar that recreate it.       

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